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Rise in Q2 GDP signals economic recovery: India Inc
03 December 2017, 01:16 | Gordon Grant
Dr Pronab Sen
"We estimate India's full year GDP growth to pick up from 6.7 percent in FY18 to 7.3 percent and 7.5 percent in FY19 and FY20, respectively". He has been grappling with slowing growth in the past five quarters, with the economy dragged down by subdued private investments, an unprecedented cash ban imposed a year ago and the introduction of a country-wide consumption tax in July. "Demonetisation and GST's impact is behind us and hopefully, in coming quarters, we can look for an upwards trajectory". On the other hand, Moody's predicts that India would be the world's seventh-largest economy to grow at 6.7 per cent in 2017-18 and at 7.5 per cent in the next fiscal.
However, the growth of eight core-sector industries slowed to 4.7 per cent in October and agriculture growth slumped to 1.7 per cent.
This prompted Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to say that the impact of demonetisation and the GST were behind us.
"Growth numbers are in sync with the expectations and re-affirm that signs of recovery are in sight", said Pankaj Patel, President of Ficci.
While manufacturing grew 7 per cent in the second quarter against 1.2 per cent in the first, services sector growth showed a significant decline to 7.1 per cent from 8.7 in the previous quarter on account of the muted performance of financial, insurance and real estate sectors. This is a pause in the declining trend of the last five quarters.
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"Indias economic stress continues; GDP far below at 6.3 pc compared to 7.5 pc of Q2 of a year ago! - a close scrutiny reveals the real picture of the economic mess created by BJP Government", he said in a statement.
"The latest set of numbers shows that activity levels were recovering from the disruption caused in the first quarter ... the second half is expected to see a further improvement from these levels", said Anis Chakravarty, lead economist, Deloitte India.
TMC chief and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee was, however, more vocal in her criticism and claimed that a growth of 6.3 per cent was "no growth". Consumption demand is one, although quarterly numbers aren't an entirely reliable indicator.
Government spending slowed in the quarter, growing 4.1 per cent, as against 17.1 per cent in the June quarter.
On November 17, Moody's upgraded India's sovereign credit rating for the first time in almost 14 years, saying continued progress on economic and institutional reforms would boost its growth potential.
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