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'Oil Prices Could Rise Considerably' If US Imposes New Sanctions On Iran

11 October 2017, 12:32 | Damon Campbell

Iran deal negotiators to brief House Democrats

Trump Obama Oval Office

Trump is set to deliver a speech on Iran this week in which he is expected to decline to certify Iran's compliance in the landmark 2015 agreement, referring it to Congress, and perhaps targeting the country's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard with new sanctions. Enough public pressure could keep the agreement intact. Tom Cotton, one of Congress' staunchest Iran hawks, argued for decertifying the deal to "have the threat of sanctions hang over Iran to push it to renegotiate the deal". This has certainly been meant to reference ballistic missile tests that flout a United Nations Security Council resolution calling on Iran to avoid work on weapons capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

"The Europe will surely prefer relations with the USA to the ones with Iran", Raghfar added. Our outraged European allies would not capitulate, and would view the United States as a bully acting in bad faith.

Iran, under the JCPOA, accepted to significantly roll back its nuclear programme in exchange for the removal of sanctions.

The Iran nuclear deal - more properly called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) - was struck in 2015.

"They agreed that the worldwide community needed to be clear-eyed about the threat that Iran poses to the Gulf and the wider Middle East, and that the global community should continue working together to push back". The deal addressed an important concern.

Another option being considered by the USA administration is to designate Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group in USA law. And so it's good news that - despite Trump's brinkmanship and headline-grabbing bluster - an unlikely story is emerging: Even as Trump batters away at the agreement, Europe's major powers are stepping in to hold it together. The deal at least sustains control over Iran's nuclear ambitions, they argue, at a time when tensions with nuclear-armed North Korea are at a fever pitch.

Trump can then legitimately claim that he has succeeded in beginning to renegotiate the nuclear agreement as he promised. Look up "Iran Deal Trump" and you will find much speculation about whether or not Trump will cancel it.

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Congress then has numerous options to advance USA interests and do away with the constant cycle of deal crisis. "Chances are that the USA president will break his country's commitment, as he has done so before". It could alternatively replace this requirement with a more limited certification that the United States and its partners are making progress in addressing the deal's shortcomings.

The North Rhine-Westphalia intelligence agency reported that Iran used front companies based in United Arab Emirates, Turkey and China, to evade restrictions to obtain nuclear and missile-related technology.

It so happens that on a key issue where Corker and the adults are supposedly stopping Trump from driving the country into a ditch - his effort to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal - he's right and they're wrong.

This president-led strategy still involves risks.

Moscow and Beijing will oppose these moves.

"Mrs May and the president also discussed the need for the UK, US and others to work together to counter destabilising Iranian activity in the region".

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